招商期貨 |  招商致遠資本 |  招商投資 |  招商證券香港 |  English 官方微博 軟件下載 登錄web交易 專家在線 財管計劃 理財超市 網上招聘 營業網點實時行情

China Banking Sector - Pressure on asset quality and NIM persists

作者: Felix LUO,Allen Feng
時間: 2019年11月27日
重要性: 一般報告
行業評級:
公司評級:
相關股票代碼:
閱讀權限:   該文章鉆石卡、金卡、銀卡客戶可閱讀全文
摘要: Report title:China Banking Sector - Pressure on asset quality and NIM persists
Analyst:Felix LUO,Allen Feng
Report type:Industry
Date:20191127
[Summary]

■ Deteriorating growth of industrial enterprises’ revenue put pressure on banks’ loan quality
■ NIM under continuous pressure
■ Maintain NEUTRAL

Growth of industrial enterprises' revenue worsened
As released on Nov 27 (Figures 1-2), cumulative growth of industrial enterprises’ revenue came in at 4.2% yoy through October (worsened, compared with September’s 4.5% and August’s 4.7%). Cumulative growth of industrial enterprises’ profit came in at -2.9% yoy through October (worsened, compared with September’s -2.1% and August’s -1.7%). Given that manufacturing and mining sectors are significant sources of non-performing loans (NPLs), growth of industrial enterprises' revenue/profit in the past had a notable negative correlation with major banks’ NPL formation ratio. Currently the sector lacks short-term catalysts as aforementioned data indicate increasing pressure on banks’ asset quality.

D-SIB evaluation might increase capital replenishment need
On Nov 26, PBOC released a draft of “measures for the evaluation of D-SIBs (domestic systemically important banks)” to solicit public opinions. The proposed evaluation methodology employs quantitative indicators to calculate system importance scores of 30 participating banks. The major indicators being evaluated include "scale", "interconnectedness", "substitutability" and "complexity". Banks that obtain a certain score are to be included in the initial list of D-SIBs. State Council's Financial Stability and Development Committee will determine the final list after taking into account other relevant quantitative and qualitative information. Additional capital requirement, along with other regulatory measures, may be imposed for the banks on the final list. Thus, the upcoming D-SIB evaluation might increase capital replenishment need across the sector. Figure 5-6 show some potential candidates to be included in the D-SIB list. Banks such as CITIC (998 HK, NR) are under more pressure to replenish capital if they are on the list.

Continuous pressure on banks’ NIM
Per PBOC’s latest data release, the weighted average loan rate declined to 5.62% in 3Q from 1H19’s 5.66%. Our research show large banks’ aggregate NIM is mainly driven by the asset side since 2016. Weighted average loan rate led large banks’ aggregate NIM by approximately 1-2 quarters (Figure 4). PBOC launched the LPR reform in August and subsequently lowered 1Y LPR (in September and November) and 5Y LPR (in November). PBOC also completed an RMB400bn MLF operation with a bid rate of 3.25% on Nov 5, representing a 5bp MLF rate cut (previously 3.3%). In the past, one MLF rate adjustment was often followed by another within a few months. Thus, another MLF rate cut will likely take place soon, paving the way for further LPR cuts. As PBOC hopes to pursue lower effective borrowing costs, banking sector’s aggregate NIM might be under pressure in the short to medium-term.

Valuation and risks
China’s banking sector is currently trading at ~0.64x 2019E P/B ratio. We maintain our “NEUTRAL” rating for the sector given continuous NIM and asset quality pressure. We prefer large banks with optimized loan structures (i.e., reduced loan exposure to manufacturing/retail & wholesale/ mining sectors), who are better equipped to preserve a relatively stable loan quality. Key catalysts: NIM expansion, upward asset quality trend. Key downside risks: NIM pressure, downward asset quality trend.

全文: 該研究報告需要相應權限才能閱讀,請在此處 
如果您不能打開pdf格式的文件,請您先下載PDF閱讀器
  - 鉆石卡用戶可閱讀全文    - 鉆石卡、金卡用戶可閱讀全文    - 鉆石卡、金卡、銀卡用戶可閱讀全文 
极速赛车计划 在墙上自制简单篮球框 网球比分牌 押庄龙虎有能赢的吗 二十一点游戏注册 广西快三 2011短线股票推荐 老虎机娱乐网站官方平台 微信上怎么打麻将玩钱 最靠谱的十大棋牌游戏 现在不让彩票合买了吗 打麻将抓牌规则 中国烟草是不是世界上最赚钱的的